How to Manage Your Shop's Inventory During the Dashain and Tihar Rush Without Running Out

Dashain and Tihar together make up the most intense six weeks of the year for Nepali retailers. Whether you run a clothing boutique in Newroad, an electronics shop in Pokhara, or a grocery store in Butwal, you have probably hit the same two problems: running out of fast-moving items mid-festival, or being stuck with slow-moving stock after Tihar ends. Both cost you money.

With a bit of planning that starts well before Bhadra, you can avoid both.

Start with Last Year's Sales Data

The most reliable predictor of what you will sell this Dashain is what you sold last Dashain. Pull your records covering Bhadra through Kartik — the full Dashain and Tihar window — and look for patterns.

List your top 20 products by units sold and by revenue during that period. Then ask yourself three questions:

• Which items sold out before Dashain even started?
• Which items did you restock mid-season, and did your supplier deliver in time?
• What was left unsold after Tihar?

If you tracked sales in a notebook last year, that is still useful — just convert it to a simple spreadsheet now. If you have no records at all, this season is your baseline. Track daily sales by product as precisely as you can. That data will be far more valuable than any generic advice next year.

Categorize Your Stock — Know What Drives Your Revenue

Not every product deserves the same attention or shelf space. A simple three-tier classification helps you focus where it counts.

• A items — Your top 10–20% of products by revenue. These need the most stock and the earliest reorder. For a clothing shop, this might be kurta sets and readymade pieces in popular sizes. For an electronics retailer, it could be earphones, mobile chargers, and phone cases.
• B items — Mid-range sellers. Stock conservatively. You want enough inventory without holding excess cash in slow movers.
• C items — Slow movers or items you are testing for the first time. Keep minimal quantities. Festival season is not the time to take chances on unknown stock.

Put nearly all your planning energy into getting A items right. That is where most of your festival revenue comes from, and it is where a stockout hurts most.

Set Reorder Triggers Before the Rush Starts

A reorder trigger is a simple rule: when stock of a product falls to a certain number of units, you place a new order immediately — no waiting, no guessing. Setting these in advance removes the decision from the middle of a chaotic sales day.

To calculate your reorder point, you need two numbers:

1. Daily sales rate at peak — How many units do you sell per day at the height of Dashain or Tihar?
2. Supplier lead time — How many days does it take for your supplier to deliver after you place an order?

The formula is straightforward:

Reorder Point = (Daily Sales Rate × Lead Time in Days) + Safety Buffer

For example: if you sell 15 pairs of sandals per day during peak Dashain, your supplier takes 3 days to deliver from Kathmandu, and you want a 2-day buffer — your reorder point is (15 × 3) + 30 = 75 units. The moment your count hits 75, you place the order without hesitation.

Write these numbers down for each A item. Stick the list somewhere visible in your stockroom, or enter the thresholds into your POS system so it alerts you automatically.

Communicate with Suppliers Early — Nepal's Supply Chain Has Real Constraints

Supplier timing is one of the most underestimated parts of festival planning. Nepal's supply chain has genuine constraints: goods coming through Birgunj or Bhairahawa face road delays, customs backlogs, and the simple reality that dozens of shops are all ordering from the same sources at once. Popular items get allocated on a first-come basis.

Contact your key suppliers at least 6–8 weeks before Dashain — that means reaching out by mid-Bhadra at the latest. Here is what to do:

1. Reserve your allocation early. Call or visit in person if you have a long-standing relationship. Relationships carry more weight than digital messages in Nepal's trade culture, especially for larger orders.
2. Confirm lead times in writing. A WhatsApp message confirming the delivery date is enough. It helps if there is a dispute later, and it signals to the supplier that you are serious.
3. Negotiate partial payments if cash is tight. Many Nepali suppliers expect an advance of 25–50% of the order value in NPR. If you cannot pay upfront, ask about 30% advance with the rest on delivery. Suppliers you have worked with before are more likely to agree.
4. Identify a backup supplier for critical A items. If your primary source delays or runs dry, you need someone to call on day one — not someone you are scrambling to find during Dashain week.

Use Your POS to Monitor Live Stock During the Rush

Manual stock counting works when you have ten customers a day. It breaks down when you have eighty. During festival season, inventory can move fast enough that a physical count is outdated before you finish it.

A POS system that reduces stock automatically as you make sales — whether paid in cash, eSewa, or Khalti — means you always know what is actually left on your shelf. Saauzi's POS tracks this in real time, sends alerts when products approach your reorder threshold, and lets you pull a sales comparison against any previous date range so you can benchmark against last Dashain without digging through notebooks.

That live visibility alone prevents most mid-season stockouts. You stop relying on gut feel and start acting on actual numbers.

The COD Cash Flow Problem You Need to Plan For

If you accept home delivery orders during Dashain and Tihar, Cash on Delivery (COD) creates a cash flow delay that catches many Nepali shop owners off guard. You ship the product, but you do not collect payment until the courier delivers and remits the cash — sometimes 3–7 days later. Meanwhile, you are restocking and paying suppliers constantly.

A few ways to manage this:

• Incentivize digital payments. Offer free delivery or NPR 50–100 off for customers who pay via eSewa or Khalti at the time of order. You get the money immediately, which helps your cash flow during the most expensive restocking weeks.
• Set a COD limit for new customers. For orders above NPR 5,000 from customers you have not transacted with before, consider requiring prepayment. This also reduces return risk, which spikes during festival season.
• Check your courier's settlement schedule. Some logistics partners in Nepal settle COD collections weekly, some bi-weekly. This difference matters when you are moving high volumes. Ask before you commit to a courier relationship.

After Tihar: Clear Leftover Stock Without Panic Discounting

Post-festival stock ties up cash you could be investing in everyday inventory. But discounting everything is also a mistake.

After Tihar, identify which items genuinely will not sell in the next 60 days without a push. For those, a short clearance of 15–20% moves stock quickly. A WhatsApp broadcast to your regular customers often works better and costs nothing compared to a paid promotion.

For VAT-registered businesses with a PAN, accurate stock records at year end matter for your tax filing. If you used a POS system during the season, those stock reports are already there — no manual counting required.

The Simple Takeaway

Festival season rewards shops that plan early and track carefully. Pull your sales records now. Set reorder points for your top products before the rush starts. Call your suppliers in Bhadra, not Asoj. Make sure your POS is giving you accurate, real-time stock numbers so you are never guessing what is left on the shelf when the busiest week of the year arrives.